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Predictive Credit Rating Methodology & Guidance 

At CreditKernel, our mission is simple: make credit risk transparent, predictable, and actionable.

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Our credit rating model delivers a forward-looking assessment of any counterparty’s creditworthiness—directly tied to their 12-month probability of default.

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With CreditKernel, you can instantly

  • Avoid bad debt before it happens

  • Spot high-risk customers and run deeper due diligence where needed

  • Automate low-risk approvals for speed and efficiency

  • Set risk-based pricing & payment terms that protect margins

  • Reserve capital intelligently

  • Safeguard your balance sheet from preventable losses

 

Every rating is backed by industry financial benchmarks, showing exactly how your counterparty stacks up—above, on par, or below their peers—so decisions aren’t made in the dark.

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​​Topics Discussed

Credit Rating Model Framework

Credit Rating Scoring Overview

Information Required

Determining the Marginal Producer

Credit Assessment Methodology

   Industry Risk

   Business Longevity

   Peer Competition

   Financial Risk

Core Rating

   Liquidity Risk

Final Credit Rating

   Probability of Default

   Expected Credit Loss

Credit Rating Reports

   Risk Appetite Alignment

Credit Model Framework

Credit risk models have historically been black boxes—complex, inconsistent, and built on outdated assumptions. We’ve built CreditKernel to change that.

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At its core, our platform combines hard data with proven credit risk management principles to answer one critical question: How likely is this counterparty to default? And we make that answer transparent, actionable, and lightning-fast.

 

Here’s how it works:

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  • We start by analyzing risk drivers: industry exposure, years in operation, revenue and margin strength, leverage ratios, and resilience to severe but plausible market shocks.

  • Higher-risk industries, weaker financials, and lower resilience mean higher probability of default. Our model quantifies that with precision.

 

The engine then scores counterparties across five core risk categories, weighting each to produce a final credit score. That score is directly linked to:

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  • Probability of Default (PD)

  • Expected Credit Loss (ECL)

 

And because context matters, CreditKernel benchmarks every score against industry financial data—instantly showing if your counterparty is outperforming, holding steady, or lagging behind peers.

 

The credit risk categories, subcategories, and weighting is as follows:

Rating Model Methodology.png

Credit Rating Model Process

How it Works (In 4 Simple Steps)​

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1. Standardized Financial Input

Enter 11 key financial line items from your counterparties balance sheet and income statement - the core metrics every analyst already looks at. 

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2. Automated Benchmarking & Scoring

CreditKernel applies industry-specific ratio analysis, risk profiling, and credit scoring - all automated. 

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3. Credit Rating Output

No more vague scores. You get a credit rating tied to a 12-month probability of default - so you know exactly how to quantify risk. 

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4. Decision Logic with Build-In Guidance

If the customer's rating and limit meet your risk policy, the system can auto-approve. If not, it prompts you to review strengths, weaknesses, and suggested actions - ensuring alignment with your credit appetite. â€‹

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Credit Rating Model Requirements

​Every great credit decision starts with the right data.  That's why CreditKernel's rating model focuses on two essentials:

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  1. Financial Statements

  2. Standard Industry Classification (SIC) Code  

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Why? Because financial statements reveal what payment history can't - profitability trends, debt service capacity, and true operational strength. With these, we don't just see if a counterparty has paid in the past; we see if it can keep paying in the future. 

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Our proprietary Financial Statement Spreading Template filters complex financials into 50 standardized line items—but to run our model, you only need 11 key inputs. From those, CreditKernel benchmarks performance against industry peers, surfaces early warning signs, and feeds directly into a transparent, probability-of-default score.

Balance Sheet

  • Cash & Short Term Investments

  • Goodwill & Intangibles

  • Short-Term Debt

  • Current Leases

  • Current Portion of Long Term Debt

  • Long Term Debt

  • Shareholder Equity

Income Statement

  • Revenue

  • Depreciation

  • Operating Income (EBIT)

  • Interest Expense

Cash Flow Statement 

​Not Required, If available

  • Depreciation (if not on Inc. Statement)

  • Cash Flow From Operations

Need a financial statement request letter?  We provide two for free.​

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​CreditKernel - Industry Intelligence Built In

Credit risk isn’t one-size-fits-all—economic conditions shift differently across industries. That’s why industry benchmarking is at the core of CreditKernel.

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Our platform evaluates and compares risk across 67 industries—all with a single, unified model. Whether you operate in one vertical or twenty, you don’t need multiple systems or models—CreditKernel handles it all.

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Enter a counterparty’s SIC Code, and our engine automatically pulls the relevant industry benchmarks and performance data, filling in credit risk scores with precision. Don’t know the SIC Code? No problem. Our built-in reference table maps 850 SIC codes to their respective industries—so your analysts can move from data entry to decision-making in seconds.

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SIC Code – Standard Identification Classification

Advertising Agencies

Aerospace & Defense

Agricultural Products

Airlines

Airports & Air Services

Apparel and Accessories

Auto Parts

Automobiles

Automotive Retail

Beverages Alcoholic

Beverages Non-Alcoholic

Building Products

Chemicals

Computer Hardware

Construction and Engineering

Construction Materials

Consumer Electronics

Consumer Services

Drug Manufactures

Education & Training Services

Electric and Gas Utilities

Electrical Equipment & Parts

Electronic Components

Electronic Gaming & Multimedia

Environmental and Facilities Services​

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Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals

Food Products

Footwear & Accessories

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances

Gambling and Betting Activities

Grocery Stores

HealthCare Providers and Services

Hotels and Lodging

Household & Personal Products

Industrial Distribution

Industrial Machinery

Information Technology Services

Leisure and Entertainment

Marine Shipping and Services

Medical Devices

Metals and Mining

Oil & Gas Drilling

Oil & Gas E&P

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Oil & Gas Integrated

Oil & Gas Midstream

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

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Packaging & Containers

Paper Products

Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology

Publishing

Railroads

Real Estate

Restaurants

Retail Stores

Security and Protection Services

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Software and Services

Steel

Telecom Services

Textiles

Tobacco

Transportation & Freight

Trucking

Utilities Diversified

Water Utilities

Methodology applies to nonfinancial entities. Does not apply to the following industries; commodity and general trading companies, investment holding companies, real estate, and non profits. ​

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Credit Risk Concept - Determining the Marginal Producer

In every industry, there’s a “marginal producer” — the player with the highest costs, lowest margins, and the thinnest cushion for when markets turn. These are the companies most likely to default when prices fall, demand weakens, or regulations shift.

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In economics, marginal producers are a signal. In credit risk, they’re a warning. Identifying them early is the difference between protecting your balance sheet and absorbing preventable losses.

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CreditKernel makes this simple.


Our model automatically flags high-risk producers by scoring Industry Risk, Peer Competition, and Financial Risk against industry benchmarks. Using percentage breakpoints (20%, 40%, 60%, 80%) tailored to each SIC code, we instantly rank counterparties from 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk)—giving you a clear, data-backed view of where they stand.

 

The result? You see the weakest players before the market exposes them—and you make credit decisions that keep you ahead of the curve.

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One model. Every industry. No guesswork.

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The table below reflects the link between Breakpoint % and Risk Scores.

Credit Risk Assessment Categories.jpg

CreditKernel – Risk Scoring That Knows Every Industry

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Not all industries play by the same rules—and your credit model shouldn’t either.

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CreditKernel’s rating engine assigns industry-specific breakpoints to score counterparties from 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk). The model applies the same percentage thresholds (20%, 40%, 60%, 80%)—but the actual values come from industry data.

 

For example, take the Debt/EBITDA ratio:

  • In the Chemical industry, a ratio below 1.6x puts you in the top 20% (score of 1). Above 3.8x? You’re in the highest-risk group (score of 5).

  • In Oil & Gas Equipment Services, the bar is different—a top 20% score requires below 0.8x, and the highest risk score kicks in above 7.6x.

 

These differences aren’t trivial—they’re the reason generic credit models fail. CreditKernel benchmarks 67 industries so your risk ratings aren’t just accurate, they’re tailored to the realities of each market.

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One model. All industries. Zero guesswork.

Chemical Industry Financial Risk Benchmarks

Debt to Ebitda ratio by industry

Oil & Gas Equipment Services Industry Financial Risk Benchmarks

Industry specific financial ratio benchmarks
Credit Assessment Categories
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Industry Risk

The potential threats and opportunities affecting the overall performance and profitability of an industry.  Predictable profitability, growth, and volatility are often associated with lower risk industries.

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Business Longevity

50% of businesses do not survive beyond 5 years.  Business longevity implies advantages such as credibility and trust, industry knowledge, established networks and relationships, and ability to navigate economic downturns.

Peer Competition

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Reflects how well a company is positioned to meet customer needs, withstand competitive pressures, and achieve long-term success in its industry.  Revenue size and operating margin are two important factors to identify your counterparties ability to differentiate itself from competitors and gain a competitive advantage.  

The Industry Benchmark tool compares financial statement ratios to industry peers. 

Financial Statement Analysis

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Spreading financial statements provides a standardized way to measure and compare various aspects of a company’s performance over time, as well as against industry peers. The Kernel model analyzes key financial ratios to identify trends, evaluate performance in relation to peers, and pinpoint areas of strength or weakness with the company’s financial profile.

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Liquidity Risk

The ability of a company to meet its short term obligations and fund its day to day operations.  Liquidity risk arises when there is minimal or deteriorating headroom between your counterparty's cash inflows and outflows. 

How CreditKernel Measures Industry Risk

By quantifying industry risk, CreditKernel doesn’t just score a company — we score the environment it’s playing in. That means you see both the player and the playing field before making your call.

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Our Kernel Model evaluates every counterparty’s industry across three critical factors:

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Revenue Growth
Signals market demand and product acceptance.

  • Strong growth → Healthy market, rising consumer interest

  • Weak growth → Demand erosion or declining relevance

 

Operating Margin Growth (EBIT %)
Reveals an industry’s ability to convert revenue into profit.

  • Expanding margins → Pricing power, cost control, operational efficiency

  • Shrinking margins → Pricing pressure, cost issues, inefficiencies

 

Operating Margin Volatility
Measures profit stability year-over-year.

  • Low volatility → Predictable performance, manageable risk

  • High volatility → Unstable pricing, margins, and demand

 

High vs. Low-Risk Industries

  • Low Risk: Consistent revenue growth, improving margins, stable performance

  • High Risk: Declining sales, shrinking margins, large swings in results

 

How We Score Industry Risk

  1. Financial statements housed in our database are mapped to one of 67 industries, using at least 10 financial statements per industry

  2. Each industry is analyzed over 3-year trends for growth, margins, and volatility

  3. Industries are ranked 1–67 for each factor

  4. Each factor is scored 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk), weighted equally (33% each), and added together to form an overall Industry Risk score

  5. Industry Risk contributes 20% to the overall Core Score

Business Longevity Assessment

The longer a company has been in business, the longer it is expected to remain in business.  The impact of business longevity on creditworthiness, or how long a company has existed, implies the following expected advantages.

Business's viewed as reliable, trustworthy, and capable of delivering on it promises build

Since 1994, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recorded and published business survivorship data, which provides insights into how long businesses survive. 

 

To understand the impact of business longevity on creditworthiness, we retrieve data sets and calculate business survivor rates for each year and up to the latest available data in 2023.

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The amount of available data varies depending on the starting year of the business.  For instance, businesses starting in 1994 have a rich dataset spanning 29 years, while those starting in 2020 contain 3 years of data.

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The studies on business lifespan can be found at Establishment Age and Survival Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Regardless of year the business opened, the statistics between business age and survivorship is evident:  20% of businesses do not survive past year 1, and a staggering 50% do not survive past year 5.  These statistics highlight the challenges businesses face in not only short-term survival but achieving long term financial success.

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How We Measure Business Longevity

  1. Users input the number of years their counterparty has been operating.  

    • If left blank, the model assigns a score of “4”, equivalent to a business operating for 2 to 5 years. 

  2. The risk scoring scale ranges from 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest). The model determines the risk score based on the table below,  using BLS data for breakpoint values.  

  3. Business Longevity contributes 20% to the Core Score. 

Credit Risk Assessment Categories (8).png

Competitive Position Assessment

In credit, it’s not enough to know how a company is performing — you need to know how they’re performing relative to their competition. That’s what Peer Competition does: it reveals whether a business is a market leader, a middle-of-the-pack survivor, or already falling behind.

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Why Peer Competition Matters

A company’s ability to win in its market depends on two core drivers:

  1. Revenue Size – Shows market demand and customer reach

    • High revenue vs. peers → Strong demand, brand strength, customer stickiness

    • Low revenue vs. peers → Smaller footprint, more vulnerable to shifts in market, regulation, or demand

  2. Operating Margin (EBIT %) – Shows efficiency and profitability

    • Above-average margins → Pricing power, cost discipline, operational excellence

    • Below-average margins → Pricing pressure, inefficiency, or cost control challenges

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Companies with both smaller revenues and lower margins are the first to feel pressure when the market turns — their margin for error simply isn’t there.

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How We Measure Peer Competition 

  1. Thousands of financial statements are housed in our database and each one is mapped to one of 67 industries

  2. Each industry set contains at least 10 financial statements to ensure robust benchmarks

  3. We pull Revenue and EBIT % for every peer in that industry, then rank them into five categories:
    Top 20%, Top 40%, Near Median, Bottom 40%, Bottom 20%

  4. SBA data defines small-business thresholds to ensure fair comparisons

  5. Your counterparty is scored 1–5 for Revenue and EBIT %

  6. We combine those scores in a risk matrix to generate the Quantitative Peer Competition score

  7. Peer Competition contributes 20% to the Core Score — because context is everything.

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Peer Competition lets you spot companies that look fine in isolation but are lagging in their industry. It’s the difference between approving an account that grows with you — or one that drags you into avoidable losses.

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Credit Risk Assessment Categories.jpg

As mentioned in step 3 above, your counterparty's revenue and EBIT are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 based on their ranking in comparison to peers. 

As mentioned in step 6 above, the counterparty's revenue and EBIT risk scores are then combined using the following risk matrix.

Peer Competition benchmarks.png

Example of how the Competitive Position assessment appears in the model:

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A counterparty has the SIC code of 2800, the Chemical industry.  The Revenue Size benchmarks range from:

 

Score of 1: Above $3.1B

Score of 2: $1.08B

Score of 3: $352 million

Score of 4: $40 million

Score of 5: Below $40 million

 

Note, industry specific breakpoint values are dynamic, and would change as the SIC code changes.

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By spreading the financial statements, we know the counterparties revenue is $1.8B and operating margin % is 8%.

Competitive position analysis

The credit model assigns a 1 to 5 risk score based on where the counterparty values rank in relation to industry peers.

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Revenue score is 2, as the counterparty’s $1.8B in revenue is below $3.1B (score of 1) and above $1.08B (minimum value for score of 2). Operating Margin score is 3, as the counterparty’s 8% margin is below 11% (score of 2) and above 7% (minimum value for score of 3).

 

Revenue score of 2 and Operating Margin % score of 3 are joined via the matrix above.  The output is a peer score of 2. ​​

Peer Competition Adjustment

The Kernel model is built on powerful quantitative benchmarking, but we know numbers don’t always tell the full story. That’s why we give users the ability to override the Peer Competition score with a simple, structured adjustment.

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This feature ensures the model reflects reality when unique market dynamics, strategic advantages, or competitive pressures aren’t fully captured in the data.

 

​An adjustment is only required if the user deems it necessary. The following characteristics represent key factors that influence long-term sustainability and market position.

Key indicators of a strong competitive business position
Ways to improve competitive position

The following dropdown options and their corresponding impacts are available to the user. The default setting is ‘No Override.’

Credit Risk Assessment Categories (10).png

Financial Risk Assessment

Balance sheets, income statements, and cash flows tell a story — but only when you know how to read them in context.
At CreditKernel, we turn those statements into financial ratios that strip away noise and reveal a counterparty’s true ability to:

  • Repay debt

  • Grow sustainably

  • Expand into new markets

  • Survive economic downturns

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Why This Matters

The tradeoff between leverage and return is as old as finance itself.

  • Used well, leverage can amplify earnings in good markets.

  • Used poorly, it can crush margins, drain liquidity, and damage shareholder value

 

Borrowing money isn’t inherently risky — failing to measure and manage it is. That’s where CreditKernel’s Financial Risk Score comes in.

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How We Measure Financial Risk

We benchmark four key financial ratios against industry peers to produce a clear, comparable 1–5 risk score:

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  1. Debt / EBITDA — Years to repay debt at current earnings levels. Higher = more debt risk.

  2. EBITDA / Interest Expense — Ability to service debt. Higher = more breathing room.

  3. Cash Flow from Operations / Debt — Cash generation strength relative to debt load.

  4. Debt / Tangible Net Worth — Debt burden vs. equity that actually holds value in a downturn.

 

Each ratio is scored against breakpoints from our database of 67 industries, each with a minimum of 10 peer financial statements.

 

  • Ratios are benchmarked, not just calculated — context is built in.

  • We use multi-year averages when available, so the score reflects trends, not just snapshots.

  • If cash flow data isn’t available, we adjust weights to keep the scoring consistent.

 

Impact on the Core Score

The Financial Risk Score carries a 30% weight in our Core Score, making it one of the most influential signals in our model — because financial strength is the foundation for every other risk assessment we deliver.​​

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Separate 1 - 5 risk scores are assigned for Debt/EBITDA, EBITDA/Interest Expense, CFFO/Debt, and Tangible Net Worth/Debt.  All four ratios use the same breakpoint percentages (80%, 60%, 40%, etc.).

Credit Risk Assessment Categories.jpg

One of the strengths of CreditKernel is that we don’t just calculate ratios — we contextualize them against industry breakpoints so you know exactly what a number means.

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Take EBITDA / Interest Expense — a key measure of a company’s ability to service its debt:

  • Score 1 (Lowest Risk) → Above 33.8x — top 20% of industry peers

  • Score 2 → 33.8x – 14.9x

  • Score 3 → 14.9x – 5.2x

  • Score 4 → 5.2x – 1.9x

  • Score 5 (Highest Risk) → Below 1.9x

 

In this example, the counterparty’s ratio is 1.8x — placing them below 80% of peers and earning a risk score of 5.

Financial Ratio Industry Benchmarks for Credit Ratings

Core Rating

The Core Rating is the baseline truth about a counterparty’s standing — not just in isolation, but relative to their industry and direct peers.

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The model will now use each of the four calculated risk scores and corresponding weights to calculate the Core Rating. 

  1. Industry Risk, 20%

  2. Business Longevity, 20%

  3. Peer Competition, 30%

  4. Financial Risk, 30%

 

​From there, we layer in Liquidity — a company-specific measure of cash flexibility — to produce the Final Rating.

Liquidity Risk Assessment

Liquidity is where theory meets reality.


It’s the clearest indicator of whether a counterparty can meet its short-term obligations and absorb a low-frequency, high-severity shock without scrambling for external financing.

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At CreditKernel, our Liquidity Assessment is independent — it’s not industry-benchmarked, because it is personal to each company.

 

Why Liquidity Matters

  • Weak liquidity → Inflows barely cover outflows, shortfalls erode lender confidence, refinancing becomes a challenge.

  • Strong liquidity → Obligations met through operating cash flow and reserves, with less dependence on outside funding.

 

It’s the difference between a company that survives the storm — and one that sinks in it.

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The Liquidity Assessment has two parts, Liquidity Ratio and Stress Test.

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Liquidity Ratio — Compares forecasted inflows to outflows to measure flexibility and short-term solvency.

 

Inflows include:

  • Cash & cash equivalents

  • Cash flow from operations

  • Available portion of bank lines

  • Asset sales

 

Outflows include:

  • Negative cash flow from operations

  • Capital expenditures

  • Debt maturities

  • Distributions

 

We forecast using three methods — 3-year average, linear trend, and last fiscal year-end — to eliminate single-period bias.

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The Output

Each forecast yields a cash inflow-to-outflow ratio, classified as Strong, Adequate, Weak, or Very Weak.
It’s a simple label backed by deep analysis — and it’s fully explainable to your team, your auditors, and your stakeholders.

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Credit Risk Assessment Categories (12).png

For each forecast method, our analysis tool displays:

  • Estimated cash inflows

  • Estimated cash outflows

  • Dollar difference (inflows minus outflows)

  • Inflow-to-outflow ratio

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The model defaults to the 3-year average for a balanced, trend-based view. But with a simple dropdown, you can switch to Last Fiscal Year-End or a Linear Forecast if you need a different perspective.

Liquidity analysis credit risk.PNG

Example Output

Using the 3-year average:

  • Inflow: $5,855

  • Outflow: $3,571

  • Difference: $2,284

  • Ratio: 1.64x → Adequate (above 1.2x and below 2.0x)

 

Last Fiscal Year-End also scores Adequate, while the Linear Forecast method yields 1.16x, scoring Weak.

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Liquidity ratios aren’t just numbers — they’re indicators of whether a counterparty can meet obligations without scrambling for cash.

  • Adequate or Strong liquidity → More likely to service debt, lower credit risk, safer to do business with.

  • Weak liquidity → Higher chance of cash shortfalls, refinancing challenges, and potential default.

Stress Test

Markets change fast. Headlines about inflation, interest rates, and recession aren’t just noise — they’re the heartbeat of the economy.

 

The real question is: Can your counterparty survive when the market turns?​

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We simulate severe, but plausible, downside scenarios — the kind that can be triggered by:

  • Economic downturns

  • Interest rate hikes

  • Currency swings

  • Industry-specific shocks

 

Rather than defining one “disaster,” the Kernel model applies haircuts to cash inflows to test how well a company can sustain operations when revenue suddenly drops.

 

The Scenarios

We apply three stress levels to cash inflows:

  • 20% haircut — Mild strain

  • 35% haircut — Significant pressure

  • 50% haircut — Severe downturn

 

Each haircut produces a Stress Test Ratio, showing if the company could still meet its outflows — even under pressure.

 

The Output

Each scenario is rated:

  • Strong → Well-positioned to weather shocks

  • Adequate → Manageable, but tighter margins for error

  • Weak → Risk of shortfalls in prolonged stress

  • Very Weak → Vulnerable to even moderate shocks

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Why It Matters

This isn’t theoretical. It’s a clear, quantified answer to the question:

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“If the unexpected happens, will this counterparty still be standing?”

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credit risk stress testing.png

For each haircut scenario , the analysis tool displays estimated cash inflow cash outflow, dollar difference, and stressed cash inflow to cash outflow ratio.  The model's default selection is 35% haircut. As you can see from below, the layout mirrors the above liquidity ratio assessment.

Stress Scenarios for credit risk.PNG

For every stress-test scenario, CreditKernel lays out the numbers you need to make the call — no digging, no guesswork.

 

You see:

  • Estimated cash inflows

  • Estimated cash outflows

  • Dollar difference (inflows minus outflows)

  • Stressed inflow-to-outflow ratio

 

The model defaults to a 35% haircut — a realistic, moderate stress scenario — but you can switch instantly to 20% or 50% to see best- and worst-case resilience.

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And because the layout mirrors our Liquidity Ratio assessment, your team can move from liquidity review to stress-test results without retraining or second-guessing.

How CreditKernel Scores Liquidity Risk

First, the Liquidity Ratio and Stress Test scores are automatically calculated.
 

Then, our model combines the assessments using the standardized framework matrix below, producing a single Liquidity Assessment Score.

 

The result?


One number that tells you both how well a counterparty can meet day-to-day obligations and how they’ll hold up under severe pressure.

Techniques for evaluating company liquidity

Liquidity Adjustment

The Kernel model provides the user with the option to override the quantitative Liquidity Assessment score by selecting one of four assessments from the override dropdown menu.

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An override should only be applied when the quantitative score does not adequately reflect the counterparty’s true liquidity position.

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The decision to apply an override is based on the analyst’s evaluation of the factors outlined below. While not exhaustive, these factors are considered to have a material impact on a company’s liquidity and overall sustainability over the next 12 months.

liquidity risk characteristics.jpg

If the user determines the liquidity characteristics and/or other available information is cause for an override, then 1 of the following 4 assessments can be selected from the dropdown list.

Credit Risk Assessment Categories.jpg

Liquidity Impact to Core Score

Companies with a Core Score of 3 or lower are generally considered low risk. These companies are expected to already have, and continue to maintain, Strong or Adequate liquidity. In these cases, the rating does not increase further.

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However, even companies that seem strong based on factors such as industry type, years in business, or competition can still be held back if their liquidity is weak. For this reason, ratings are limited as follows:

  • If a company’s liquidity is Weak, its rating cannot be higher than 4.

  • If a company’s liquidity is Very Weak, its rating cannot be higher than 5.

 

It is important to note that the Liquidity Override does not raise or lower the Core Rating directly. Instead, it sets a limit on how high the rating can go.

Liquidity risk for credit reviews.PNG

For example, if a counterparty has a Core Rating of 4 with a Liquidity Assessment of Adequate, but the user overrides the assessment to Weak, the Final Score becomes 5 (4 + 1).

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In another case, if the Core Rating is 4 and the override selected is Strong, the Final Score is reduced to 3 (4 - 1).

 

The framework is as follows: companies with a Core Rating of 1, 2, or 3 are already expected to maintain Adequate or Strong liquidity. Because of this, there is no additional benefit or upward adjustment (“0” change) for having such liquidity.

 

However, if a company shows Weak or Very Weak liquidity, the downgrade can be significant. Companies in this situation have little to no ability to absorb financial stress, which poses a much higher risk.

Final Credit Rating and Probability of Default

CreditKernel’s Final Credit Score is linked to a 12-month probability of default (PD), which is an opinion that reflects the likelihood of a borrower failing to meet their debt obligations.

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This is important because the word “high risk” or "low risk" alone is too vague. CreditKernel eliminates that ambiguity by linking every score to a probability of default. 

 

How the Score is Calculated

  1. Each risk category is scored from 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk).

  2. These scores are weighted and combined into a Core Score.

  3. The company’s liquidity (cash strength) is reviewed, which can increase the score up to 7.

  4. The result is the Final Credit Rating, ranging from 1 to 7.

 

The higher the number, the higher the chance the company will default.

Probability of default rating scale

Final Thoughts: Methodology and Framework

When a counterparty racks up multiple scores of 4 or 5, the signal is clear: elevated probability of default.

 

Here’s what those numbers mean:

  • Score of 4: Performance falls in the bottom 40% of peers.

  • Score of 5: Performance drops into the bottom 20%.

 

In other words, multiple 4’s and 5’s indicate a business operating on the margins. When the economy tightens or competition heats up, these are the first to feel financial strain—and often, the first to default.

 

This is the intelligence lenders and credit teams need to make faster, sharper decisions.

Credit Rating Report

Our platform combines research-backed models, industry benchmarks, and intuitive workflows without unnecessary complexity. It’s powerful enough for analysts, yet simple enough for the entire credit team to adopt quickly.

 

Here’s how we deliver value:

 

1. Optimize Risk and Reward – Price accurately. Set payment terms, credit limits, and lending amounts based on a counterparty’s unique risk profile. Every decision is tied to compensation for the risk you take.

 

2. Align Risk Appetite to Strategy – Your thresholds, your rules. We automate routine, low-risk approvals while flagging higher exposures for deeper review. That means more speed where it’s safe and more focus where it’s needed.

 

3. Communicate with Clarity – Reports highlight key strengths, weaknesses, and actionable recommendations. Whether it’s a streamlined approval or a full review, you’ll know exactly why—and what to do next.

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Streamline vs Full Review - Your risk appetite in action​

Your risk appetite defines the workflow. We help you set thresholds by exposure size, geography, industry, or customer type.

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  • Streamline Review: Lower-risk, smaller exposures - fast tracked or automated. 

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  • Full Review: Counterparties that fall outside your appetite get deeper analysis, commentary, and a decision-ready package for approval or decline.

 

CreditKernel doesn’t dictate your limits—we build around them. When exposures exceed thresholds, it’s not an automatic “no”; it’s a signal to dig deeper. Our platform ensures those decisions are made with speed, precision, and alignment to your company’s goals.

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Disclosure

The methodology acts as a tool to estimate the creditworthiness of a counterparty.  The ratings provided represent CreditKernel's opinion on the counterparty’s creditworthiness and should not be considered a guarantee of credit quality or an exact measure of default probability.  Opinions rely on forecasts of unforeseen future events and qualitative assessments that may prove incorrect due to changes in financial markets, industry dynamics, or regulatory actions.  See www.creditkernel.com/terms for Terms.

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